Thinking Big About Small Companies

NTS Part 7: In Conclusion, a $3 Stock?

May 22nd, 2013 | Posted by Torin in NTS - (Comments Off)

  The previous posts on NTS built a case for $25 million of EBITDA three years out. At that time, the company will still have growth opportunities. For instance, there will be a few more competitive markets like Wichita Falls where NTS can target business customers, and late adopters in the ARRA towns will continue … Read more

NTS Part 6: Backhaul, CLEC, Cash Flow, Balance Sheet

May 22nd, 2013 | Posted by Torin in NTS - (Comments Off)

  In the last post I discussed how the NTS fiber roll-out might progress over the next few years. The discussion focused specifically on typical residential and business customers. But NTS also has the opportunity to sell “backhaul” services (sometimes also referred to as fiber-to-the-tower) to telecom companies. Backhaul consists of providing ground transportation (via fiber) for data … Read more

NTS Part 5: Applying the Adoption Type Curves

May 20th, 2013 | Posted by Torin in NTS - (Comments Off)

In the previous post, I derived adoption “type curves” for NTS’s various customer bases. The task now is to apply those curves to NTS’ markets.  The table below shows my estimate of how many potential customers (often referred to as “passings”) exist in each market, based on the Powerpoint presentation I linked to previously, as … Read more

NTS Part 4: Market Share and Adoption Rate Case Studies

May 17th, 2013 | Posted by Torin in NTS - (Comments Off)

What market share can NTS win in its markets? How long will NTS need to win that share? I’ll try to answer those questions using a couple of early NTS fiber markets as case studies. I’ll start with markets focused on business customers. The original NTS fiber market was Lubbock. NTS began building its own … Read more

NTS Part 3: Customer Adoption Rate

May 16th, 2013 | Posted by Torin in NTS - (Comments Off)

How many of the homes and businesses that NTS’ fiber lines pass will ultimately sign up as NTS customers? Information on national broadband adoption would be helpful in answering this question, and luckily the topic is one that gets a lot of research attention. Two recent reports in particular—one by the Department of Commerce and … Read more

NTS Part 2: Fiber Broadband Economics

May 16th, 2013 | Posted by Torin in NTS - (Comments Off)

In the previous post, I offered some background on NTS and gave an overview of the three businesses the company operates today. Soon I’ll offer an analysis of the future profit contributions of each individual network. But before doing that I want to step back and look at the economics of broadband in general.  To … Read more

NTS Part 1

May 15th, 2013 | Posted by Torin in NTS - (Comments Off)

The series of posts to follow will explore NTS, a holding of Monte Sol and its affiliates. I have been sitting on this research for a while, waiting for the right time to post it. After yesterday’s stock price drubbing (for no reason—or at least no good one), I feel now is the appropriate time. … Read more