Thinking Big About Small Companies

Zedi Part 3 – The Plague of Fracking

October 8th, 2013 | Posted by Torin in ZED - (Comments Off)

If you are already familiar with how fracking has changed the North American natural gas industry, you can skip this post and wait for the next one. If you aren’t, here is a primer: In the 1990s, a few U.S. natural gas producers began experimenting with horizontal, rather than vertical, gas drilling. Sending a drill … Read more

Zedi Part 2 – Company History and the Collapse in Natural Gas Drilling

October 7th, 2013 | Posted by Torin in ZED - (Comments Off)

Zedi was co-founded in 1987 by Don Clark and Dr. Ito Tokunosuke. Zedi’s founding and early growth was based on a simple premise: the traditional method of measuring gas well flow, pressure, and other parameters was inadequate. The conventional method of measurement involves a rotating paper chart that records well flow and pressure over a … Read more

Zedi Part 1 – Introduction and Overview

October 7th, 2013 | Posted by Torin in ZED - (Comments Off)

Monte Sol and its affiliates own Zedi shares. In the future Monte Sol and its affiliates may reduce or increase their investments in Zedi depending on changes in share price or business performance. Monte Sol and its affiliates have no obligation to disclose any future transactions in Zedi shares. The analysis presented here is the … Read more

Radiant Logistics: Still Cheap

July 2nd, 2013 | Posted by Torin in Logistics | RLGT - (Comments Off)

Additional Thoughts on NTS

June 3rd, 2013 | Posted by Torin in NTS - (Comments Off)

I received a number of comments in response to my NTS pieces. Some of the topics make for worthwhile additions to the thesis, so I’m sharing them here. 1. The Incredible Value of the ARRA Subsidies. My research mentioned the value of the ARRA loans ($54 million) and grants ($46 million), but it didn’t put those numbers … Read more

NTS Part 7: In Conclusion, a $3 Stock?

May 22nd, 2013 | Posted by Torin in NTS - (Comments Off)

  The previous posts on NTS built a case for $25 million of EBITDA three years out. At that time, the company will still have growth opportunities. For instance, there will be a few more competitive markets like Wichita Falls where NTS can target business customers, and late adopters in the ARRA towns will continue … Read more

NTS Part 6: Backhaul, CLEC, Cash Flow, Balance Sheet

May 22nd, 2013 | Posted by Torin in NTS - (Comments Off)

  In the last post I discussed how the NTS fiber roll-out might progress over the next few years. The discussion focused specifically on typical residential and business customers. But NTS also has the opportunity to sell “backhaul” services (sometimes also referred to as fiber-to-the-tower) to telecom companies. Backhaul consists of providing ground transportation (via fiber) for data … Read more

NTS Part 5: Applying the Adoption Type Curves

May 20th, 2013 | Posted by Torin in NTS - (Comments Off)

In the previous post, I derived adoption “type curves” for NTS’s various customer bases. The task now is to apply those curves to NTS’ markets.  The table below shows my estimate of how many potential customers (often referred to as “passings”) exist in each market, based on the Powerpoint presentation I linked to previously, as … Read more

NTS Part 4: Market Share and Adoption Rate Case Studies

May 17th, 2013 | Posted by Torin in NTS - (Comments Off)

What market share can NTS win in its markets? How long will NTS need to win that share? I’ll try to answer those questions using a couple of early NTS fiber markets as case studies. I’ll start with markets focused on business customers. The original NTS fiber market was Lubbock. NTS began building its own … Read more

NTS Part 3: Customer Adoption Rate

May 16th, 2013 | Posted by Torin in NTS - (Comments Off)

How many of the homes and businesses that NTS’ fiber lines pass will ultimately sign up as NTS customers? Information on national broadband adoption would be helpful in answering this question, and luckily the topic is one that gets a lot of research attention. Two recent reports in particular—one by the Department of Commerce and … Read more